In a multi-year research study, authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner identified volunteers, only paid $250 per year, to regularly try to predict questions about current events in a competition. A certain number of them have achieved the level of a “superforecaster” where they outperform even the federal intelligence community in their predictions. Obviously, these individuals demand further examination so that we all can learn from their “secret sauce.”
What makes these individuals tick in their work? And are they just lucky? Or super-smart? Do they work well in teams? If so, how? The authors deal with each concern and others, chapter by chapter, in their analysis of what it takes to accurately predict the future.
Of course, no one – even the best superforecasters – have perfect prescience. They do have self-confidence in their abilities but also humility vis-a-vis the task at hand. They come from many walks of life but usually have an insatiable curiosity for continual improvement and a willingness to flex their concepts of rightness and wrongness in light of new data.
The authors simply state that their goal is to do for the task of pundits what evidence-based medicine did for physicians. They want the language of probability to better engage with our civil dialogue and for talking heads to be accountable for their predictions. Perhaps then, they will state their positions with more precision and testability instead of vague pronouncements. And perhaps that, they suggest, can help society escape an endless cycle of partisan discord based on tribalism instead of accuracy. I, for one, wish them success.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
By Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Narrated by Joel Richards
Text copyright (c) 2015
Crown
Audio copyright (c) 2015
Audible Studios
ASIN B0131HGPQQ
Length: 9:45
Genre: Economics
www.amazon.com