Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction
In a multi-year research study, authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner identified volunteers, only paid $250 per year, to regularly try to predict questions about current events in a competition. A certain number of them have achieved the level of a “superforecaster” where they outperform even the federal intelligence community in their predictions. Obviously, these individuals demand further examination so that we all can learn from their “secret sauce.” What makes these individuals tick in…
